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[ti]SW[/ti]Building a Weapon Manufacturing Capacity
Topic Started: 20th November 2013 - 09:51 PM (81,520 Views)
Jim M
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lashgare
9th February 2015 - 03:12 AM
Jim Maguire
8th February 2015 - 05:53 PM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deep



You're comparing entirely different situations. Croatia has a coast, and croatia also has slovenia(their fellow catholic nation) which would smuggle weapons to their catholic brothers. Who is going to transport the weapons? Turkey? Israel? Iran? Not going to happen. Kurds are hard to mobilize. Maybe they can buy weapon stocks from corrupt turkish army outfits. Or Iran, or maybe via Jordan/Saudi arabia, now that they're stepping up. But there is no easy way of doing it. And they can all say "No". Since none of them have an interest in arming. There are no good options.

1. Saudi-arabia/jordan will be reluctant, because kurds are fighting their fellow sunni arabs. They still see the the arab insurgency as a armed revolution against shiahs, even though it's directed by Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [ISIS]]]])))))) which has designs on their countries. Even though they can be convinced with under table deals, I'm not sure kurds want to do that, because it would put limits on what kurds can do to fight DAASH. Either way... they have no route to kurdistan. So it's a moot point

2. Turkey would rather give back cyprus to greece, than arm kurds and give them any form of advantage. Their strategic goal has been to weaken kurdish military capacity, by directing Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [ISIS]]]])))) against kurds and slowly breaking. They're afraid that YPG's success will spread to bakur. Their ties to Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [ISIS]]]])))) are obvious as day light. Considering their shady support for Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [ISIS]]]])))).

3. Iran doesn't want to arm kurds extensively, since they don't want to see kurdistan becoming powerful enough to step out of line with the Iraqi state. You can't get anything more than small arms, munitions and simpler equipment.

4. Israel has both the capacity to export and manufacture weapons of all sizes. But I'm not sure kurds would embark in a cooperation with israelis, considering the geostrategic situation. It would require significant logistical resources, and I doubt kurds would want to get involved with israel directly. And there is no intermediatary. Jordan+saudi arabia don't have a border with kurdistan, Iran and turkey would never agree to it. It would be extremely hard to smuggle them through syria(Too much risk and failure potential). They'd have to be airlifted, and that's expensive. Israel won't put out the money for the operation, and kurdistan can't afford it.

So it's really really difficult. No easy way to do it. If we had a coastline, however, things would be very easy.


There always seems to be hundreds of reasons why you can't and very few of how you can. Defeatism and pessimism seem to be deadly diseases amongst the Kurds. Weapons of all sorts are pouring into Baghdad but nothing but small stuff seems to be getting to the Kurds. So theoretically even as part of Iraq you should still have a share of these weapons. But it seems like the Kurds would rather complain and act like victims rather than proactively do something about the situation.

1. Romania or some other Eastern Block country that are now broke would bend over backwards to sell weapons. I think they even have a heavy airlift capability. I believe the KRG has already approached this country but backed out of any deal.

2. Do you really think that having inferior weaponry is going to be any defence against a genocidal intent from either Turkey or Iran especially since the US has proven it will not always be there with air power? Whether or not you have weapons is not going to change the hatred of these people but the thing it will do is be a deterrent.

3. You "doubt kurds would want to get involved with israel directly". Is this your own anti Israel sentiment because I don't think its KRG policy. Israel may be helping now but in a covert way?

4. There are already armored cars being built in the KRG. They are crude and probably ineffective but it shows what can be done. I know there is a steel industry, truck trailer manufacturing and tire making facilities. The only thing that needs to be imported is running gear and electronics. The wide open door policy that has given the Kurds the economic miracle it has could even draw in high tech manufacturing like this.

From what I see the only thing missing is the will to do it.
Edited by Jim M, 9th February 2015 - 08:00 PM.
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lashgare
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Jim M
9th February 2015 - 07:45 AM
lashgare
9th February 2015 - 03:12 AM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deep[Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash]]]])))))) which has designs on their countries. Even though they can be convinced with under table deals, I'm not sure kurds want to do that, because it would put limits on what kurds can do to fight DAASH. Either way... they have no route to kurdistan. So it's a moot point

2. Turkey would rather give back cyprus to greece, than arm kurds and give them any form of advantage. Their strategic goal has been to weaken kurdish military capacity, by directing Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash]]]])))) against kurds and slowly breaking. They're afraid that YPG's success will spread to bakur. Their ties to Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash]]]])))) are obvious as day light. Considering their shady support for Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash (Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash [Daash]]]])))).

3. Iran doesn't want to arm kurds extensively, since they don't want to see kurdistan becoming powerful enough to step out of line with the Iraqi state. You can't get anything more than small arms, munitions and simpler equipment.

4. Israel has both the capacity to export and manufacture weapons of all sizes. But I'm not sure kurds would embark in a cooperation with israelis, considering the geostrategic situation. It would require significant logistical resources, and I doubt kurds would want to get involved with israel directly. And there is no intermediatary. Jordan+saudi arabia don't have a border with kurdistan, Iran and turkey would never agree to it. It would be extremely hard to smuggle them through syria(Too much risk and failure potential). They'd have to be airlifted, and that's expensive. Israel won't put out the money for the operation, and kurdistan can't afford it.

So it's really really difficult. No easy way to do it. If we had a coastline, however, things would be very easy.


There always seems to be hundreds of reasons why you can't and very few of how you can. Defeatism and pessimism seem to be deadly diseases amongst the Kurds. Weapons of all sorts are pouring into Baghdad but nothing but small stuff seems to be getting to the Kurds. So theoretically even as part of Iraq you should still have a share of these weapons. But it seems like the Kurds would rather complain and act like victims rather than proactively do something about the situation.

1. Romania or some other Eastern Block country that are now broke would bend over backwards to sell weapons. I think they even have a heavy airlift capability. I believe the KRG has already approached this country but backed out of any deal.

2. Do you really think that having inferior weaponry is going to be any defence against a genocidal intent from either Turkey or Iran especially since the US has proven it will not always be there with air power? Whether or not you have weapons is not going to change the hatred of these people but the thing it will do is be a deterrent.

3. You "doubt kurds would want to get involved with israel directly". Is this your own anti Israel sentiment because I don't think its KRG policy. Israel may be helping now but in a covert way?

4. There are already armored cars being built in the KRG. They are crude and probably ineffective but it shows what can be done. I know there is a steel industry, truck trailer manufacturing and tire making facilities. The only thing that needs to be imported is running gear and electronics. The wide open door policy that has given the Kurds the economic miracle it has could even draw in high tech manufacturing like this.

From what I see the only thing missing is the will to do it.
Jim Maguire
8th February 2015 - 05:53 PM




You're comparing entirely different situations. Croatia has a coast, and croatia also has slovenia(their fellow catholic nation) which would smuggle weapons to their catholic brothers. Who is going to transport the weapons? Turkey? Israel? Iran? Not going to happen. Kurds are hard to mobilize. Maybe they can buy weapon stocks from corrupt turkish army outfits. Or Iran, or maybe via Jordan/Saudi arabia, now that they're stepping up. But there is no easy way of doing it. And they can all say "No". Since none of them have an interest in arming. There are no good options.



Meh, easy when it comes from someone whose country has Always been at an advantage when it comes to war material. Bosnians were in a position much like us, they got slaughtered, whether they tried with blind optimism or not. The onslaught of serbians didn't end until Saudi Arabia and Iran intervened and sent weapons on US Hercules planes. It's not pessimism, it's realism.


Jim Maguire
8th February 2015 - 05:53 PM

2. Do you really think that having inferior weaponry is going to be any defence against a genocidal intent from either Turkey or Iran especially since the US has proven it will not always be there with air power? Whether or not you have weapons is not going to change the hatred of these people but the thing it will do is be a deterrent.


Iran and Turkey have other games to play. They ran out of kill kurd occasions. Kurds have become so strong today, I doubt Iran Would attempt it. And the turks are already doing it in rojava at best of their effort. No weapons kurds can acquire will deterr the turks or the iranians besides.




Jim Maguire
8th February 2015 - 05:53 PM

3. You "doubt kurds would want to get involved with israel directly". Is this your own anti Israel sentiment because I don't think its KRG policy. Israel may be helping now but in a covert way?.


No, Israel is diplomatic high risk relationship. Makes alot of enemies. Not Worth the risk. And it's unlikely they'll deliver. Being friendly with israel, in a vulernable, landlocked state, makes you the enemy of most states around you. You don't know middle-east politics. Kurds get alot of flak for flirting with israel, what do you Think will happen if states around Kurdistan, know that israel has been shipping arms to kurds? Do you Think israel won't have it's own agenda and demands? Or do you Think they'll cut deals out of their good hearts. Israel will use Kurdistan against Iran, for sure. And they don't have to face the bill.



Jim Maguire
8th February 2015 - 05:53 PM

4. There are already armored cars being built in the KRG. They are crude and probably ineffective but it shows what can be done. I know there is a steel industry, truck trailer manufacturing and tire making facilities. The only thing that needs to be imported is running gear and electronics. The wide open door policy that has given the Kurds the economic miracle it has could even draw in high tech manufacturing like this.
?.

You mean those refurbished containers with Heavy machine guns mounted on? They're for show. Not actual combat. They might give some ground cover if kurds are facing enemies with small arms only, but they don't last long when fired by Heavy caliber weapons, IEDs or Rocket propelled grenade launchers. Kurds are far away from producing anything serious. Even simple ínfantry fighting vehícles, or armoured cars, require advanced technology.
Edited by lashgare, 13th February 2015 - 03:39 AM.
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Jim M
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lashgare;
So your viewpoint is: Kurds are impossible to motivate, Heavy weapons are impossible to acquire and there is no hope for the future of the KRG or Kurds in general. You seem to be saying Kurds are and always will be welfare cases subject to the largesse of countries like the USA. Worse they should be willing to be subject to the occasional human rights abuses of the homicidally sadistic powers of the countries Kurds inhabit using whatever excuse they want any time they want.

At least the PKK had the courage to challenge Turkey over human rights abuses. You on the other hand seem to think the Kurds should just lay down and die.

The Kurdish miracle of the KRG will die an ignominious death with an attitude like yours and maybe you think the best thing that Kurds can do is emigrate and for those that can't be prepared to absorbed into the general population of Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

I'm sure there are a lot of other Kurds that don't share your pathetic outlook.
Edited by Jim M, 13th February 2015 - 08:41 PM.
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Partizan
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lashgare
 
Being friendly with israel, in a vulernable, landlocked state, makes you the enemy of most states around you.
We are their enemy already. Their suffocation of Kurdistan and hostile posturing is only conductive to a Kurdish-Israeli alliance, so they must be anticipating it. There is nothing we could do that would aggravate their stance much further than it already is. They might take some further measures, but their intentions are statically anti-Kurdish.

They don't need a pretext for aggression either. The only people who'll be protesting when they invade us are the audience of Vice News and Liveleak. If Turkey, Iran or Iraq can pump Kurdish oil as cheap as we can, world powers won't give a crap who runs Kurdistan. In fact, they'd be glad to be rid of the nationalistic headache that we are.
Edited by Partizan, 13th February 2015 - 01:11 PM.
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lashgare
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Jim M
13th February 2015 - 10:46 AM
lashgare;
So your viewpoint is: Kurds are impossible to motivate, Heavy weapons are impossible to acquire and there is no hope for the future of the KRG or Kurds in general. You seem to be saying Kurds are and always will be welfare cases subject to the largesse of countries like the USA. Worse they should be willing to be subject to the occasional human rights abuses of the homicidally sadistic powers of the countries Kurds inhabit using whatever excuse they want any time they want.

At least the PKK had the courage to challenge Turkey over human rights abuses. You on the other hand seem to think the Kurds should just lay down and die.

The Kurdish miracle of the KRG will die an ignominious death with an attitude like yours and maybe you think the best thing that Kurds can do is emigrate and for those that can't be prepared to absorbed into the general population of Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

I'm sure there are a lot of other Kurds that don't share your pathetic outlook.
Quote:
 
So your viewpoint is: Kurds are impossible to motivate, Heavy weapons are impossible to acquire and there is no hope for the future of the KRG or Kurds in general. You seem to be saying Kurds are and always will be welfare cases subject to the largesse of countries like the USA. Worse they should be willing to be subject to the occasional human rights abuses of the homicidally sadistic powers of the countries Kurds inhabit using whatever excuse they want any time they want.


You're not thinking logically or clearly here. It's not about there not being hope or motivating kurds. It's just a very difficult position. This isn't an ayn rand novel where the main character finds a way to fight back against an overwhelming force like society/the establishment, or a movie like red-dawn where they all go guns blazing. It's reality, not a cowboy western in north-america. Roflmao welfare cases, is that the neo-conism poking out?

Look at the case studies of landlocked countries who have to face larger more well equipped states. Look at chechenya, uighurs in xinjiang, afghanistan or anywhere, in a asymmetric setting. The Chechens for example were by far the most militarily well organized and went on the gun-blazing path, without thinking of the consequences or having made any stabilizing cogent precautions for after the war(one of the most important of all, political unity). They ended up right where they started and lost everything to Russia. Once Russia established a competent goverment(under putin, who more than made up for yeltsin incompetence), they started outmaneuvering the fledgling chechen republic and employed divisive tactics amongst the chechen factions, until all out civil war broke out between different chechen factions. This gave the russians the neccesary window and pretext to step in and retake all their loses from the first war, ending the chechens short-lived independence. And Chechens had one of the most well-planned and excellent military campaigns for an asymmetric force, ever to have existed. They literally had the russian armed forces flee in terror and disarray. They pegged every square and circle. Their defense of grozny was one of the most succesful military endeavours taken by an unconventional force. Them being a tiny nation defeating the country with the 2nd most powerful military on earth. But unfortunately they screwed up the after war. Because they hadn't planned and organized for it.

Logistically, it's very difficult to procure arms for landlocked countries and nations, whose neighbouring states, have any other interest save to arm potential rebels in their territory. What you see today, all the arms provided by western states, are solely intended for defeating and combatting Daash. Once Daash stops existing, so will the flow of arms from the west into kurdish hands. The west has absolutely no interest in seeing kurdistan breaking away from Iraq(as they have stated countless times). And there are no reliable suppliers, because of the landlock and differing interests amongst neighbouring state, and most of them have no interest in letting kurdish regions under their control seperate.

All those APCs, tanks, ATGMS, helicopters and fighters you see, take decades to develop. I don't mean refurbishing containers with mounted heavy caliber guns, tractor enginers, some mechanics in a YPG-held workshop put together. I mean proper combat vehicles, with advanced armor plating, electronic modules. They take time to develop besides being expensive. They require heavy industries, technical universities and military technological institutions, all cooperating to produce to those units, in an optimal setting. Even simpler arms like sniper rifles requires technical experts and uncommon materials and machines to produce. That's not something which kurds have the capacity to do or create in their current state and under the geographic condition of their country. Not wth their limited budget and restrictions on import. KRG(The richest and most independent part by far), has major financial issues since they had a fallout with baghdad last year. They had to resort to under the table deals with turkey, to make up for it(exporting oil outside of the jurisdiction of Iraq, via Turkey serving as a intermediatary ). And that relationship has probably fallen, since turkey started intensifying their relationship with Daash and other syrian rebel elements. Baghdad has a coastline, they have Iran, they have the support of major world powers and that's why they're getting all the arms shipments. They have the central and final authority, recognized by the world at large. And since kurdish politicians have their eyes set on independence. Iraq will block any heavy arms shipments. Even if relationships normalize... you can forget about Iraq ever seriously helping in arming kurds, ever again. That path is gone.

So the only strategic option kurds have left is to defeat Daash, then link all the kurdish areas in rojava, and then try to take a strip of the syrian coast-line. This would enable them to build a kurdish controlled pipeline in the future and a port for exports and impots. That would solve both the issues of exporting oil and buying and transporting arms. It would secure the neccesary income to get arms for future military campaigns. It's either that or they become some proxy for a larger state, indefinitely in an unforseenable future. No other routes. Unless someone agrees to airlift, or convinces turkey, iran to allow material through. Which is just not logically possible. There is no way to transport the material neccesary for manufacturing at the current moment, none of that is feasible anyhow. Smuggling doesn't work either. The material demand and logistics are far beyond what smuggling operations can procure and besides it being risky. And no states are incompetent enough to let significant arms smuggling into their vulnerable areas.

The issue with trying to establish relationships with israel, isn't the fact that Israel won't provide arms. It's at what cost. Israel has a history of using proxy allies, in that they act as benefactors. Like the lebanese phalangists and christian militias in lebanon during the lebanese civil war. Who they primarily supported to fight their opponents. Hezbollah, palestinian paramilitaries and other anti-israel groups in lebanon. That policy however failed badly. Eventually leading to israel withdrawing their military and medical aid .Christians in lebanon received alot of the backlash for that. Something in a similar fashion, is likely to happen if kurdistan tried to establish a military-aid relationship with israel. It's not a mutual relationship of two strong states sending aid to one another or exchanging arms or money(like the US buying german arms, or europeans or algerians buying arms from US/RUSSIA), it's one more powerful state actor, acting as a benefactor to another for a price. And the price is always that the beneficiary has to act in the benefactors interests. It's known that Israel has long wanted to attack Iran without creating all out war(much like how Iran has hezbollah). But they haven't found one to be used as a proxy, until recently(kurds). They exhausted the US card, so the next best strategy is to employ is a proxy. And if a kurdish proxy is coopted and fails to fullfill it's role. The support will be withdrawn. We'll end up taking the backlash, in the israelis failed proxy venture(much like what happened after the iran-iraq war, when iran withdrew support from their kurdis allies). Kurdish areas in Iran don't even have the neccesary political groundwork to work in unison. Much less fight a serious prolonged guerila war. I don't mean those small skirmishes between PJAK and PDKI and Iranian border patrols you read in the news about, from time to time. I mean full out war between armed kurdish guerilla groups and the iranian army's full capacity. So kurds would likely fail to retake kurdistan in Iran. Signing into a relationship like that will only mean that kurds will lose in the long-term, just so israel gets a shot at it's arch enemy. No thanks. Any kurdish politician eager for such conundrum, is stupid to be so short-sighted.

Proxies has been the primary strategical method used in waging between different states in the middle-east for the past 25 years or so, if you haven't noticed. Say what you will, going into a relationship with israel, with the goal of getting a reliable supplier to liberate kurdish areas, is stupid and short-sighted. Thats my prediction based on all historical examples I can think of.

And with kurdish history of in-fighting(look at the war between PUK AND KDP, at the behest of saddam) makes kurdistan liable to being screwed with political maneuvering. Even if co-current kurdish factions managed to liberate all of kurdistan today. There isn't the neccesary political groundwork and stabilizing factors that allows it to be strong and stable, and to resist external pressures. I'm pretty sure it's not a good idea at the moment.

It's not about being weak or pathetic, or putting down your ambitions and assimilating. It's about seeing reality and planning and acting from there. Those cool freedom fighters that liberate countries over nights you see in movies, don't exist in reality. Creating states and stabilizing nations takes decades of preparation and political work. We're not at that point yet. The military aspect is easy. It's not hard for 30-35 million kurds to wage a sucessful guerilla war in their majority areas. But that requires reliable logistics and political unity for it to be sustainable. Conditions that don't exist yet.

The best thing to do for the moment, is to secure a coastline in syria(making future kurdistan becomes fully independent independent), fight Daash, and establish better internal relationships between kurdish factions and external relationships with neighbours.

There are lots of issues to resolve before you can go in all out warfare, and they take time. Thats what you have to understand, before calling someone pathetic and cowardly.

Last time north-americans tried to realize their policies in the middle-east, you can look at the resulting shitstorm they created for themselves. Your people lost trillions meddling in areas you have no conceivable idea about.
Edited by lashgare, 17th February 2015 - 02:11 AM.
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Jim M
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lashgare:
I stand by what I've said about you and I'm not going to apologise for anything I said. What you and a lot of other Kurds need to do is stop saying what can't be done and figure out what can be done. You can logically belabor, trash or make light any arguments I make but I heard very little from you in the way of positive support for a real country that you all seem to want. I have ideas about what can be done and calling me an outsider does not mean my ideas have no merit.

I keep hearing everyone saying that the KRG has no port but as long as you are part of Iraq (that everyone insists) there is always the Port of Basrah. Since its a well known fact that everything about the so called central government of Baghdad is run by corruption I don't understand why the Kurds can't use it to their advantage to "expedite" shipments of goods. Just a thought but with a little prod or push here and there you would be surprised what could be accomplished.

I volunteered for the Canadian military when I was young and worked in manufacturing for my entire life. I'd take offence at what you said about me but I'd rather challenge you to use your "logic" for constructive support of Kurdistan and less for negative bashing and maybe you will come up with some ideas too. This is a public forum and you never know who is watching this website so these ideas here can and will find their way to places that could surprise you.
Edited by Jim M, 16th February 2015 - 07:04 PM.
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lashgare
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Jim M
14th February 2015 - 06:21 AM
lashgare:
I stand by what I've said about you and I'm not going to apologise for anything I said. What you and a lot of other Kurds need to do is stop saying what can't be done and figure out what can be done. You can logically belabor, trash or make light any arguments I make but I heard very little from you in the way of positive support for a real country that you all seem to want. I have ideas about what can be done and calling me an outsider does not mean my ideas have no merit.

The irony of this. You called me a coward, pathetic. But act all like you have a wounded ego, when I respond in kind. We know what can be done and what can't be done. We know our affars very well. It's a difficult situation. But the resolution to our issues isn't today, it's in the future, when there are better strategic options.

Quote:
 

I keep hearing everyone saying that the KRG has no port but as long as you are part of Iraq (that everyone insists) there is always the Port of Basrah. Since its a well known fact that everything about the so called central government of Baghdad is run by corruption I don't understand why the Kurds can't use it to their advantage to "expedite" shipments of goods. Just a thought but with a little prod or push here and there you would be surprised what could be accomplished.

Baghdad is corrupt, but it's rulers are not stupid. Ibadi is much more careful and diligent about corruption than his predecessor(A few months ago he started cracking down on corruption in the military, and it will be a followup with the goverment aswell). His goverment is not going to let that pass by, that singificant amounts of arms are being smuggled illegally to kurdistan. Besides that, basrah is in deep shiah arab territory. It's not a contested border like syria. The creation of shiah militias that are semi-dependent, would make it difficult, even if the iraqi goverment agreed to arm kurds or allow kurds access to it. Like I said... until kurds make a serious effort to control a port in Syria it's not easy. And they're dependent on foreign military aid until then. They can make some limited munitions production, but nothing that would turn the tide or give any big advantages over Daash . If they could renegotiate their budget with baghdad. It would free up alot of finances. But that's really outside of kurdish politicians hands, and obviously out of my hands(as a kurdish citizen). And i'm not sure it would work out. Because Ibadi would demand a gurantee that kurdish areas remain a part of Iraq. Which well, would squash any kurdish leaders designs on creating a independent kurdistan. Which would be a setback for kurds.



Jim M
14th February 2015 - 06:21 AM
lashgare:
I stand by what I've said about you and I'm not going to apologise for anything I said. What you and a lot of other Kurds need to do is stop saying what can't be done and figure out what can be done. You can logically belabor, trash or make light any arguments I make but I heard very little from you in the way of positive support for a real country that you all seem to want. I have ideas about what can be done and calling me an outsider does not mean my ideas have no merit.

Well, this is just a discussion board. The real discussions about policies happen somewhere in kurdish goverment buildings. The only thing we can discuss here is which ideas are more feasible/logical/sensical/useful. I did mention that if kurdish decision makers were smart... they'd plan a campaign to take a strip of the syrian coast. After the Syrian opposition, Daash weaken. It would include taking over alawite territories. But i'm not sure how tightly held the the areas are. Kurdish independence is a hard struggle. One can only do what is possible and plan for when better opportunities come. As much merits someone with an engineering degree and with military training has, if you don't understand the strategic and geopolitical situation on-ground, you might aswell be punching in the dark. Like I said. The military stuff is easy. Kurds aren't militarily incompetent. We have been at the center of conflict in west-asia for centuries, and poor hill/mountain folk make tough warriors. My own tribe have been warriors fighting in millenias worth of conflicts. Especially during the safavid era. We've fought the assyrians, the arabs, persians, greeks, turks, mongols, timurids, uzbeks and durrani afghans and neighbouring tribes. We've also routed russian cossacks alongside with bakhtiaris during the constitutional rebellions in Iran, when the cossacks were better equipped and "trained" than lor-kurd and lor montaneers. We have a longer experience fighting asymmetric conflicts, certainly more than americans, and definitely more than canada. But without strategy, and planning and long-term thinking, looking at the big-picture, fighting and war material doesn't have any value. War material is one dimension of strategy, but not the trump all card, especially not when it comes to independence in landlocked countries. It's essential in logistics... but if there is no feasible way to obtain it reliably at the moment, you have other priorities. There is a reason why mao tse-tung overcame nationalist and dynastic forces. He was a much better military strategist/politician than any of his western supported nationalist counter-parts.
Edited by lashgare, 21st February 2015 - 05:21 AM.
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Jim M
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LOL, I love it when I get misquoted. I wish you'd put quotation marks around what I said when you "quote" me. Nothing I said was meant as a personal attack on anyone. On the other hand if you wish to take it personally that's up to you.

"Wounded ego", wow, you seem to be the one that is expending so many words trying to justify your negativity.

About the corruption of Baghdad. I don't think that proud tradition is going to end just because of a change of leadership. By the way corruption and intelligence are not mutually exclusive in this case.

I agree with you on one thing that is the most important for the KRG and that is having a strategy. But before even that is possible you need the will to do it.

As far as Mao is concerned he won because he was just better at dirty fighting than Chiang. More than that Chiang practically had his hands tied by Roosevelt.

What is admirable about Mao in this case is that he had the "will to win" which overcame almost insurmountable obstacles. Without that nothing is possible.
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Halo
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Têkoşer

I read somwhere very recently that Kurds had ordered heavy weapons from some e.european country but turkey refused to be a transit route
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Halo
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Têkoşer

if some poor pakistanis in some remote town in waziristan(N.Pakistan) can manufacture about 1000 types of small weapons and ammo a day with basic tools, please say how it's not possible to establish atleast a simple firearms industry in Kurdistan.
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Partizan
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Halo
21st February 2015 - 09:51 AM
if some poor pakistanis in some remote town in waziristan(N.Pakistan) can manufacture about 1000 types of small weapons and ammo a day with basic tools, please say how it's not possible to establish atleast a simple firearms industry in Kurdistan.
Small arms ammunition was produced for the Peshmerga in the 1960s and 1970s (though I don't know in what amounts, it must have been little since the withdrawing of supplies from Iran caused a total collapse).
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Partizan
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I suggest a brute-force method to rapidly expand our workforce of engineers and scientists. There must a nation-wide IQ survey, all citizens of working age and adolescents must take a professional IQ test. It's not organizationally difficult, the same techniques as in holding and counting political votes can be used, it will just take a little more time. Then, all citizens whose IQ is measured above a certain value (say, 125 or so) must take compulsory education in an engineering or science field. Their deficiencies in maths and physics will be assessed and rectified in crash courses held in makeshift schools. Then they go on to the regular higher education system. To manage the subsequent problem of scarce lecturers/instructors, arrangements must be made to increase the maximum amount of people that can attend a lecture as much as needed, and efforts must be made to hire as many foreign lecturers as possible. All university courses that are neither related to science or engineering(with the exception medicine) or are of no use to Kurdistan's needs must also be temporarily suspended. This will mean that many rubbish degrees like business/management or 'social studies' will go.

It may be coercive and politically incorrect, but I can guarantee you that the results of such a program will be some that Kurdistan could boast of to the entire world. Nothing this radical has ever been attempted in any country, the pervading mindset in this neo-liberal era is to wait for the productive forces of an economy to just develop on their own. State intervention is objected to on moral grounds and as infringing rights. Well, developing countries such as Kurdistan are not in a position where they can afford to sit on their arses and wait for the bogus "invisible hand" of free markets to develop resources (human and material) out of nowhere, without such measures as protectionism and state intervention, relentless comptetition from foreign companies will totally suppress any domestic ones, and with it any expertise developed that we have access to and can be made to serve our national interests.

I believe most leaders of developing countries (including our own) don't actually care about neo-liberalism and laissez-faire as philosophies in their own right, they merely see them as excuses to be idle and indolent. The average KDP or PUK official probably spends his time lolling on a luxurious office chair all day, knowing that their laziness is justified by economic theories they themselves are too dumb to understand, but are endorsed (and pushed) by the West.
Edited by Partizan, 21st February 2015 - 11:16 AM.
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Jim M
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kurdo82
21st February 2015 - 09:19 AM
Jim M
21st February 2015 - 06:53 AM
LOL, I love it when I get misquoted. I wish you'd put quotation marks around what I said when you "quote" me. Nothing I said was meant as a personal attack on anyone. On the other hand if you wish to take it personally that's up to you.

"Wounded ego", wow, you seem to be the one that is expending so many words trying to justify your negativity.

About the corruption of Baghdad. I don't think that proud tradition is going to end just because of a change of leadership. By the way corruption and intelligence are not mutually exclusive in this case.

I agree with you on one thing that is the most important for the KRG and that is having a strategy. But before even that is possible you need the will to do it.

As far as Mao is concerned he won because he was just better at dirty fighting than Chiang. More than that Chiang practically had his hands tied by Roosevelt.

What is admirable about Mao in this case is that he had the "will to win" which overcame almost insurmountable obstacles. Without that nothing is possible.
you are talking against a wall,
they will give one thousand reasons why something is not possible,
i challenge them all,
i have done research by myself and as far as i am concerned, its much easier if you really try and focus on that matter,
everybody is talking about high tech weapons, we do not need high tech weapons, we need a lot of weapons,
it is even enough if they are on the WW2 standard,
we are fighting people with no weapon manufacturing capacity,
talking about aircraft,
i would suggest to reverse engineer the rolls royce nene turbojet engine,
its really the most simple design of a turbojet engine and it really does not need a lot of machinery, the funny thing, kurds have access to modern machinery and kurds have the infrastructure to make steel alloys,
whats hindering us to reverse engineer the engine ?
money, the lack of know how,
do we need high tech electronics,
high electronics is easy to get, your smart phone is more high tech then the majority of all military systems,
reprograming micro controllers is possible too,
please answer me my kurdish brothers
is it not possible to reverse engineer the rolls royce nene,
the principle is known,
even the alloy composition is known,
every steel factory of which the kurds have two, is able to build them

lety say, we mange to produce 2000 engines, which in the end would only need 1000 ton of steel,
kurdistan has a steel producing capacity of over two million ton per year,

now, this engine is able to deliver 20 kn
we could build two versions,
a ground attack version, using two engines,
weighting six ton, armored with kevlar plates, transporting four ton of ammunition and two ton of fuel etc,
a plane with a maximal take off weight of 12 ton, reaching a speed of 800 kmh,
armed with two fixed 20 mm canon and crude bombs
and a heavy bomber with four engines,
we could even emulate the shape of the b2 bomber to frighten our enemy,
or make it really simple,
just rebuilding the b 29 bomber, using 6 jet engines instead of the four engines it had
a plane, just made of aluminium and wood, having 120 kn of thrust
and able to carry a payload of 8000 to 10.000 kilo, reaching a full speed of 600 kmh

we could just bomb the hell out of the enemy

now imagine we start to develop the engine and the frames separatly,
we could build the frames dozens of times and later fit the engines inside, they wont have and they do not need any electronics,

just imagine we would produce 200 bomber frames and 400 ground attack frames,
hmm what would happen ?
we could bomb oour way to the ocean
we cannot reach it unless we have the weapons to do so,
we need to have first the weapons and not the access to the sea, we have to bomb our way there,


building artillery tubes and mlr is not difficult either,
the other key element we need to produce is the bearing but that again is not a difficult task either,
all we need is money and strategic planing,
we are caught in a strategic nightmare and our enemies count on that that we are not able and not willing to develop arms,
even the united states thinks that way ,
but again, i am sure i will receive dozens of answer why is not possible to reverse engineer the nene turbojet engine,
why is not possible to build an airframe out of aluminium or plywood or glass fiber
or why is it not possible to build huge bombs like the daisy cutter
just attaching 40 to 50 oil barrels to eachother,
sorry guys, i dont get it

send 50 bombers of the type i have mentioned and release the load on any front position in this current , no matter how fortified and it will be destroyed,
500 ton of explosives would fall on them,
we could even start strategic bombing


we could even develop the air frame of an interceptor, copying the design of the saab draken , installing a crude afterburner for the jet engines and we would even have a plane, faster then the speed of the sound,
its not that difficult, its nothing that we need to develop by our own, just copy and paste of designs 70 years old

we need to outproduce the enemy, we do not need better weapons, we simply need more weapons,
and if we want to have a better assault rifle, just lenghten the barrel or rebuild it with the same mechanism, a longer barrel but using the 7,62 x 51 mm nato standard ammunition, that is possible too,

we could develop super rpgs, building a tube with a 150 mm tube diameter, using the explosively formed penetrator principle to create a super strong warhead, that is the priciple behind the BGM 71 TOW,
unguided, it could even have a diameter of 180 mm
we could go on and build a guided version, all we need is a micro controlled driven rc device, the rocket would get the orders by the rc device and the microcontroller in the rocket would translate it into motion, using small electrical engines, directing and guiding the rockets into the envisaged target,
it could be wire guided in the beginning
sure these tubes and their warheads would weight 30 kilo but even a m1a1 would not resist them
the propellant charge could be build from the recoiless rifles and we could use a piezo ingniter to detonate the rocket on impact

its all possible
and it not only sound easy, its really easy
Everyone thinks its easy after its done but before its done its always impossible.

"Where there's a will there's a way." A trite old saying but true but the most important thing here is "will". If the Kurds don't find the "will" nothing is going to get done.
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Partizan
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On the subject of importing weapons (or any equipment) against the will of our neighbours, is it really necessary to use conventional transport structures (whether legal or illegal)? Even granted that corruption among border authorities can be taken advantage of to get some things through, my intuition tells me such an operation has a high likelihood of failure, simply due to the amount of people that would know about it. We need to physically circumvent inspections, authorities and people altogether. Could it not be possible to just smuggle the goods through a random rural border area without relying on any contacts among the authorities of the neighbouring state, offroad and bypassing checkpoints? The goods could maybe be disassembled and smuggled across the border in components. A single component(or set thereof) may be a small and inconspicuous enough object not to be detected, and some border regions are so rugged that security/surveillance there must be porous at best. The PKK use mules to move their supplies through the mountains. Mules can carry crates of equipment/weapons components.

P.S I searched exhaustively to find a photo of a disassembled jet engine (as can be readily found of ) to help make my case with, but it doesn't seem to exist.
Edited by Partizan, 22nd February 2015 - 08:44 AM.
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Worldwar2boy
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These discussions are useless. Kurdistan needs to secure a coastline, via Northern Syria if possible. That's the only way to guarantee true independence. Or Iran must be disintegrated / fall apart.

In case of Iranian disintegration, and if the Bakthiari / Lur people choose for independence/greater autonomy, the Khuzestan Province could be our other way to the sea;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khuzestan_Province

Khuzestan province is inhabited by mostly Bakthiari & Lur people, whom are close relatives of us (Kurds). Their language is also spoken by many Kurds, since it is considered a variation of Kurdish. Many of them are adherents of the Kurdish Yaresan/Yarsan religion.

50% of Khuzestan province is Bakthiari, around 25-30% is Lur, there are also some Armenians, Iranian Arabs, and Persians are minority.

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FulcrumKAF
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If we manage to form a Sunni autonomous region within Iraq, we could use the Jordan-Sunni Iraq route to import weaponry. This is why Kurdistan have always been supportive of a sunni region in Iraq and have welcomed many Sunni tribes when they are wanted by Baghdad. Everything points at that such a region would be weak and dysfunctional, which is just positive for us and our influence on such a state.
Jordan have always been supportive of arming the Peshmerga.

I agree that PYD-KRG should set a strategy for getting land near the coast in Syria. That land is highly defended by loyal and well-equipped SAA troops, but that does not render the goal impossible. They have been broken in that area before by FSA. The situation in Syria is dynamic. With the new US plan to train "moderate" rebels to fight Daash the FSA will get a huge boost in their capabilities. We all know that the FSA will use the majority of the new equipment and knowledge against Assad and not IS (US hits two flies with one smack; using IS as a scapegoat for arming the rebels to take down Assad). The regime in Damascus might get knocked out of it's dominant position in Syria and the balance of power be restored. Kurds could take advantage of that too to reach their goals.

Getting our own coast instead of relying on other (weak/small/non-hostile) states should naturally be the main goal.
"Never plan on the thoughts of others, but on their capabilities". That is especially true for a region like the middle east.
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Worldwar2boy
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Yeah, not for now. Once the cantons are connected and Peshmerga forces are strengthened, they can send reinforcements to Rojava. Or, if Assad is smart, he should give Kurds access to the sea voluntarily, it would mean a new, reliable ally in the region. But he's probably too stupid to realize/do that.

A lot of the countries that exist today have fought hard for their coast. Coastal line is a necessity.

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Jim M
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Partizan
22nd February 2015 - 08:18 AM
On the subject of importing weapons (or any equipment) against the will of our neighbours, is it really necessary to use conventional transport structures (whether legal or illegal)? Even granted that corruption among border authorities can be taken advantage of to get some things through, my intuition tells me such an operation has a high likelihood of failure, simply due to the amount of people that would know about it. We need to physically circumvent inspections, authorities and people altogether. Could it not be possible to just smuggle the goods through a random rural border area without relying on any contacts among the authorities of the neighbouring state, offroad and bypassing checkpoints? The goods could maybe be disassembled and smuggled across the border in components. A single component(or set thereof) may be a small and inconspicuous enough object not to be detected, and some border regions are so rugged that security/surveillance there must be porous at best. The PKK use mules to move their supplies through the mountains. Mules can carry crates of equipment/weapons components.

P.S I searched exhaustively to find a photo of a disassembled jet engine (as can be readily found of ) to help make my case with, but it doesn't seem to exist.

A Kurdish controlled zone in northern Syria all the way to the sea, now where have I heard that before. Hmmm...

Air transport by cargo aircraft would be the simplest method of getting things into Kurdistan and would probably be the most cost effective way for acquiring avionics or other high tech electronic components but for heavy stuff like drive trains for armored vehicles you definitely need a shipping port like Basra. My thoughts on this are that when it arrives at a port the customs officials would be bribed and the components would be labelled as "agricultural equipment". Creative paperwork is the name of the game, you could always say it is spare parts bound for Baghdad (via Hewlêr).

Driveline equipment could probably pass through without bribes as they could very well be farm equipment. However things like cannon and other forms of ordinance you would definitely need to grease a few palms. Everything would be shipped as parts in crates to reduce the chances of it being recognised. Once it had its customs clearance (and the "duty" was paid) and was on a tractor trailer and covered with a tarp the cargo would be driven night and day until it reached its destination in Kurdistan. Can't be done, hell I think its done all the time.

To say this is impossible is completely missing the fact as to just how corrupt the entire Baghdad government is. It is especially laughable that anyone would think a change of leadership in Baghdad is going to change any of this. If the Kurds can't take advantage of this they are destined to become a footnote in the history books:

"Iraq 10 years on: How Baghdad became a city of corruption"

“The corruption is unbelievable,” says Ghassan al-Atiyyah, a political scientist and activist. “You can’t get a job in the army or the government unless you pay; you can’t even get out of prison unless you pay. Maybe a judge sets you free but you must pay for the paperwork, otherwise you stay there. Even if you are free you may be captured by some officer who paid $10,000 to $50,000 for his job and needs to get the money back.” In an Iraqi version of Catch-22 everything is for sale. One former prison detainee says he had to pay his guards $100 for a single shower. Racketeering is the norm: one entrepreneur built his house on top of a buried oil pipeline, drilled into it and siphoned off quantities of fuel."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-10-years-on-how-baghdad-became-a-city-of-corruption-8520038.html
Edited by Jim M, 25th February 2015 - 10:51 AM.
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Jim M
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Worldwar2boy
22nd February 2015 - 10:50 AM
Yeah, not for now. Once the cantons are connected and Peshmerga forces are strengthened, they can send reinforcements to Rojava. Or, if Assad is smart, he should give Kurds access to the sea voluntarily, it would mean a new, reliable ally in the region. But he's probably too stupid to realize/do that.

A lot of the countries that exist today have fought hard for their coast. Coastal line is a necessity.

Wow if the Cantons of Rojava are connected that would be a huge boost for their independence not to mention a united front so they can move troops from one place to another. United they will also be stronger in dealing with I.S.I.S. Turkey or Assad. I would love to see this happen as it would be a tremendous benefit for them and the rest of the coalition as it would cut I.S.I.S. off from Turkey not to mention go a long way towards ending the war. I can only hope that the PKK understands this and pours everything they've got into Rojava as it would take all the manpower they can muster to maintain independence.
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ALAN
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Here are all the 5 home made APCs
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ALAN
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Hope we can soon move on to other weapons not just build APCs and stop... Maybe better MRLS, Mortars and tank rounds...
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Jim M
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ALAN
3rd March 2015 - 01:18 AM
Hope we can soon move on to other weapons not just build APCs and stop... Maybe better MRLS, Mortars and tank rounds...
Start with something, anything but the first move must come from the KRG because without this there is nothing.
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ALAN
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Yeah that's it it has to come from KRG then it will become reality...
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Armanc
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We all of course want that Kurdistan is self sufficient in all branches. In fields of electricity, water, food and fuel KRG did very well.

But KRG failed to develop a industry to produce goods including weapons.

To develop the Kurdish military and not to depend on others KRG must start to create its own arms industry. They can start with producing ammunition, guns and machine guns thats a basic and than it can develop its industry and build heavier weapons.

If KRG is currently not able to create a arms industry alone because of the finance crise, it can cooperate with Kurdish private companies to build a partly state owned and partly private arms industry.

There are so many rich privat companies in Basur like KAR Group or Faruk Group etc. why they do not invest in the safety of Kurdistan with creating a arms industry?

If you build high buildings you must also be able to protect it. Hewler is rich and Kerkûk is poor, but it was PDK in Hewler that failed to protect the city alone. So instead to waste all the money for the rich class They should invest something for a arms industry and fight corruption especially in the military.
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FulcrumKAF
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Po210

Really interesting documentary.



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