kurdo82

19th March 2015 - 09:17 PM

the possibilty of an armed conflict between the kurds and the shia militia with active support from iran will rise.
The iraqi army lost the ground in june 2014 to the IS-terrorist movement, since then we have observed the emergence of the shia forces.
These new forces, armed and funded by iran, are currently pushing forward.
It may take only several months until the IS threat will be put down.
The kurdish forces meanwhile have managed to take over control over the disputed territories,
areas the shia forces want to take back after the defeating the IS movement.
The current war may have two outcomes
the IS movement will survive and manage to hold on onto regions they control
or the IS movement will be destroyed,
the sunni population more or less uprooted and politcally irrelevant
with only two dominant players left,
the peshmerga and the shia militia

it may be time to have a look at the shia forces

the shia forces use different tactics copmpared to IS.
IS is a guerilla movement that can switch between guerilla style warfare, conventional war and even special operations.
Small units of IS fighters on kamikaze missions can sneak through defense lines and bring havoc as we have seen during the hotel siege in Kerkûk, the shia forces do not fight this way, especially the iraqi ones

The bulk of the shia forces act like a typical conventional force with a strong emphasis on artillery support,
there s a strict seperation between the forces that conduct special operations and the regular forces.
The conventional forces have to be seen as pretty amateurish, the majority of the military units, even if they are provided with modern weaponery do not know to properly use them,
every victory they gain have to be bought with huge losses
i do not believe that the shia force, having a look at their combat effectivness could stand a chance in infantry vs infantry operations,
they may not even be able to use their armor properly,
kurdish forces may be able to fight off even armored attacks.
But the shia militias have three advantages,
huge reserves, they can take a lot of casualties, even facing catastrophic losses, but they may still be able to rebound.
A better logistical supply line from iran with constant weapon and ammunition deliveries being certain.
The shia militia have a technological edge either.

Their iranian leaders are obsessed with rockets,
iran is itself is investing heavily in rocket technology, its allied forces in Lebanon and in iraq are provided with rocket artillry either.

the majority of these rocket systems are unguided rockets ranging from 20-75 kilometers,
the iranian military has already provided the shia militias with these type of rockets,
they may no be useful against military targets, but they can be useful to destroy infrastructure and terrorize the population.

I have already witnessed how shia militia are using trucks to launch rockets.

The shia forces didtnt perform pretty well in direct combat until now and i am sure they wont try to face kurdish forces diretcly,
they may adapt the same tactic, they are using against israel,
instead of facing the israeli army directly, they have adapted a war of attrition, using the rockets to attack civilian targets inside israel, building up political pressure.
Here comes the real danger,
the shia militia could adapt a low intensity war against the kurds,
attacking the kurds with their rocket artillery in order to mount political pressure, only to a degree that there wont be major kurdish military reprisals and knowing that the kurds cannot defend themself or counter these rockets.
Iran itself wont try to attack the kurds, they will use their proxies in iraq to do that,
the tactic is pretty effective against israel, only because of the small size of israel.
A rocket with a range of 75 kilometers, launched from southern Lebanon or the Gaza strip can hit nearly all major population and industrial centers inside Israel,
the longest range of the cheap and easily to use unguided rockets, produced by iran, is currently at 75 kilometers
and it may stay so for a long period.
We need to avoid such a situation.
Of course, iran could provide them with more sophisticated rockets but they are much more difficult to handle and they may cost even more

The best solution would be to create a buffer of 60 kilometers between the line of seperation ( between the kurds and the shia forces ) and all major kurdish population centers,
namely ( our foces would be able to identify and destroy their rockets quite easily if they would be launched too close from the front )

dohuk,
Hewlêr,
Kerkûk
and slemami

the shia militias wouldnt be able to adapt a hezbollah style approach against the kurds to take control of the disputed territories and i am pretty sure that they wont try to face the kurds directly for the territories,
its especially important in the case of Kerkûk,
kurds need therefore to push forward and take the Djebel Hamrin line,
the Djabel hamrin mountain is about 50 to 60 kilomters away from the city itself

this means,
the kurds must take control of eastern mosul and hawijah to secure the major kurdish population centers, eventough the majority of the population is non kurdish or they may become depopulated areas, similiar to the Golan strip.

kurdishpatriot

19th March 2015 - 09:26 PM

Yes shia militia has taken bashir dangerously close to Kerkûk

AlanJunior

19th March 2015 - 10:19 PM

The Shia militia does not have the capacity to attack Kurdistan. 27k + Iranian command + group troops + logistics have still not been able to take tikrit. Unless they acquire a strong air force or a large amount of M1A1s they are no threat to the Pesh.

Besides, if they attack us full on, we can consider that as a declaration of war by Iran. This will not sit well in the West or Sunni powers of the region. So, I don't see them as a threat at the moment. Off course, we should not let them to camp near our borders, as they are unpredictable.

ALAN

20th March 2015 - 01:47 PM

Remember these shia militas HAVE long range rockets which we don't have they have even threatened us with them before the shia group called Asayb Ahl al Haq. It's a video no one can stick up for them.

Attached to this post:

marx.jpg (61.02 KB)

Worldwar2boy

23rd March 2015 - 11:49 AM

Capitalism and religion go hand in hand.
Corrupt, full of lies, only meant to fool the masses and for personal gains/profits.
Empires and religions were built on these f**king lies.

Communism was never fully or properly implemented, here is to hope the western and religious f**ks don't interfer with Rojava, as it will become a socialist/communist safe heaven.

Read Marx and judge for yourself.

Communism will set humans free. The world is realizing this. Capitalism and religion showed their true colors, there are riots all over Europe, unions are collapsing and banks are not functioning anymore.

Interesting times ahead :).